Every day, Americans install more than 18,000 new central air conditioners near their homes. Every time this happens, families are missing out on an opportunity to lower bills, increase comfort levels, or even help save lives. But a new law introduced in Congress this month could allow more Americans to seize the opportunity.
A key provision in the recently passed HEATR Act encourages manufacturers to convert their entire stock of traditional air conditioning systems (which only cool) into something that can both heat and cool: a heat pump. The bill, sponsored by Democratic Senators Klobuchar, Smith, Hickenlooper, Whitehouse, Leahy, Merkley and Booker, could change climate control in the United States.
Double-sided heat pumps have a number of important advantages over single-sided air conditioners and traditional heat sources. They are typically two to four times more efficient than competing devices, meaning they result in comparable or lower energy bills for most homes. By replacing other heat sources such as natural gas, oil and wood, heat pumps can significantly reduce indoor air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Even Florida homes with multiple heating days per year can win.
The market is moving in that direction, albeit slowly. Almost 4 million heat pumps were sold in the US last year. However, 6 million central air conditioners were sold during the same period. The US Energy Information Administration expects that, based on current trends, sales of central air conditioners will continue to outstrip sales of heat pumps by 2050. This market inertia comes at a real cost. Because HVAC systems can last 15 to 20 years when a homeowner installs a new central air conditioner, the chances of having heating turned on by 2040 plummet. Locking down aging infrastructure in this way will delay US decarbonization by decades.
This would be a huge missed opportunity. Central air conditioners and central heat pumps are usually almost the same thing. Think of them as two cars of the same make, except that only one of them has a reverse gear. For manufacturers, the main difference between the two technologies is only a few hundred dollars for parts that dissipate heat in both directions. However, the initial small difference in cost is exaggerated by supply chain markups and installation costs, so when consumers buy a central heat pump, the difference in initial cost can be large.
But it shouldn’t be like that. Instead of decades, we can replace every one-way central air conditioner sold in the US with a two-way heat pump in just a few years. We can do this for taxpayers and companies at minimal cost and with great benefits for consumers and the environment.
Last year, we collaborated on a study on what would happen if the federal government encouraged manufacturers to switch all of their central home air conditioning production to heat pumps. Our research, conducted with Clasp, a non-profit appliance efficiency organization, shows that voluntary incentive programs could save consumers $27 billion over the next decade. Affected households can save an average of $169 a year on their energy bills (these estimates were made prior to gas and oil price hikes this winter). Within a decade, reducing air pollution could save more than 800 lives each year. Greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 49 million tons per year. Depending on the design of the project, the benefits will exceed the costs by 5-8 times.
A plan like that proposed by the HEATR Act would give companies the confidence to make full use of heat pumps. Wholesale and consumer prices for heat pumps are likely to fall in line with current air conditioner prices as the cost difference is offset. Since participation is voluntary, it will only hasten the market transformation already underway.
Homes don’t even need to get rid of existing heating systems to reap the benefits of heat pumps. While premium “cold climate” heat pumps can withstand the harshest winters, even basic heat pumps can be paired with existing fossil fuel hybrid configuration systems.
This approach preserves the choice of heat sources for consumers and avoids the indignation of states that “prohibit the use of gas for space heating”. The average heat pump stays more efficient on all but the coldest days, replacing 40 to 90 percent of the fossil fuel used by fuel-based backup systems, depending on region, home, system chosen, and quality of installation.
The hybrid configuration allows both consumers and contractors to get used to the idea of ​​a heat pump. The possibility of storing reserve heat from the furnace reduces the load on the network. The fact that customers can keep their existing systems makes it easier for contractors to work in cold climates by reducing the risk of costly winter maintenance trips. A hybrid approach can also simplify the installation process by avoiding electrical panel upgrades. The next time a home needs to replace an HVAC system, they will have years of familiarity with heat pumps, reducing fears and paving the way for full electrification by 2050.
The plan to significantly increase the number of heat pumps on the market while reducing costs also generates significant capital gains. Tenants have little control over their HVAC systems, but if all the central air conditioners on the shelf are replaced with similarly priced heat pumps, the owners of those properties are more likely to opt for a heat pump. Low-income homeowners will also benefit from lower heat pump prices. Heat pumps provide especially significant savings for rural residents who rely on costly heat sources such as oil, propane, and electrical resistance (the difference can be $1,000 or more per year). These benefits are achieved directly by mass replacement of central air conditioners with heat pumps, without relying on other subsidy programs.
The HEATR Act has real potential to attract bipartisan support. We are a good example: one of us is a working-class conservative (Nate) and the other is an Ivy League liberal (Alexander). We do not agree with many politicians. But we all think that this is a pragmatic proposal based on common sense.
The United States is particularly well positioned to use this opportunity to accelerate the widespread adoption of district heat pumps. Since many homes in the United States use ducted HVAC systems, replacing a central heat pump instead of a central air conditioner is a relatively simple process. Installation is nearly identical, typically only requiring a thermostat update and less than an hour of additional setup. More importantly, we already have the manufacturing capacity to manufacture many of these devices domestically, providing good jobs in America as well as providing electricity to American households.
As they say, you can be good, fast or cheap, but you can only choose two. Going to a 100% hybrid HVAC heat pump allows us to get all three. Reducing the use of fossil fuels by 40-100% is good. To achieve this in just a few years is fast. It’s cheap to save tens of billions of dollars with only billions of dollars in incentives. We must not miss this rare opportunity.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily belong to the organization to which he or she belongs.
Alexander Guard-Murray is a political economist who studies the policy of accelerating decarbonization. He is currently a postdoctoral fellow at Brown University’s Climate Solutions Laboratory and the Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance.
Nate “Home Whisperer” Adams is the author of The Home Comfort Book and co-founder of HVAC 2.0.