Switching to heat pumps will have a huge impact on the power grid in many areas where electricity demand peaks in the summer.
By 2030, electric heat pumps will be the most affordable way to use clean energy to heat the majority of single-family homes in the United States, according to a study released Wednesday by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy.
The report concluded that in some areas with extremely cold temperatures, heat pumps as well as “alternative backup fuel” below 5 degrees Fahrenheit “generally” minimize costs. However, the analysis showed that electric heat pumps minimize the cost of heating water in all climatic conditions.
The study assumes a scenario for the next decade in which the energy system and heating fuels are largely decarbonized.
Experts say electrifying heat loads in buildings is critical to meeting state and federal decarburization goals, but there are concerns about the cost compared to gas-fired ovens or other systems. The ACEE study concluded that electric heat pumps “generally minimize the average equipment life cycle and energy costs for heating and cooling in areas south of Detroit.”
However, the cost of equipment and installation varies greatly. The average option for the study suggested that an electric air source heat pump would cost around $6,800, but a cold climate heat pump would also require an additional $5,900. According to the study, the cost of a gas oven is estimated at less than $4,000 under a moderate scenario.
But in nearly 80 percent of the homes analyzed in the ACEE study, electric heat pumps have lower life cycle costs than condensing gas ovens. The study focused on approximately 3,000 homes and apartments in the 2015 U.S. Energy Information Administration Residential Energy Survey, which used gas, propane, or oil-fired stoves or boilers and modeled the cost of heating decarbonization options such as gas or electric heat pumps. ● Life cycle cost or gas stoves using biogas or synthetic natural gas derived from green hydrogen.
In 2020, about 26 percent of U.S. households “use electricity as their sole source of energy,” according to the EIA.
“Electrification will play a key role in decarbonizing homes, but the transition will be slow as long as cheap fossil fuels are widely used,” report co-author Laila Fadali, ACEEE Senior Scientist, said in a statement.
The cost of fuel and electricity was a “key variable” in the study, said report co-author and ACEEE Executive Director Steven Nadel on Wednesday at a webinar discussing the paper. He said the study used actual household electricity prices in the dataset and adjusted them using national EIA estimates. For natural gas, the study used EIA’s projections for fossil gas and “increases in biogas and green hydrogen costs,” as well as higher allocation rates to account for customers switching to electricity, Nader said.
“In our average case, alternative gas, including fuel and distribution costs, is closer to $40/MMBtu,” Nadel said. Thus, natural gas is “more than three times higher than current prices.”
According to the American Gas Association, which represents natural gas utilities, by 2050 the price of natural gas to households is expected to be between half and one-third of the price of propane, oil and electricity.
The AGA also released a study in February titled “Net Zero Emissions Opportunities for Natural Gas Utilities” which found that “sustainable use of natural gas and extensive utility delivery infrastructure can increase the likelihood of successfully achieving net zero targets.” while minimizing the impact on price.
To drive the shift to carbon-free heating, the ACEEE report calls for more heat pump research and development, incentives and funding to support installation, minimum energy efficiency standards for heating equipment, adjustments to electricity bills and carbon prices.
According to a recent analysis by the grid operator, the transition to heat pumps is expected to have a significant impact on the grid in many regions where electricity demand is currently peaking in the summer. The New York ISO system is expected to become the peak winter system sometime in the mid-2030s. ISO New England expects the system’s electricity consumption to grow at about 1.1% per year over the next decade, concluding last year that “the increase in electrification required beyond the current 10-year planning horizon could result in this area will be peak winter use.” power supply system”.
Josh Quinnell, senior research engineer at the Center for Energy and the Environment, who also spoke at the ACEEE webinar, said the report’s results look “reasonable”, noting reasons for optimism.
“This is indeed a very timely report,” Quinnell said. “Right now, many of our researchers and developers are struggling with the cost, performance, and power limitations of air source heat pumps in cold climates, and what that means for relatively aggressive decarburization targets.”
ACEEE’s results reflect some of the “barriers” to using electric heat pumps in cold climates, but he added that he was encouraged by the fact that carbon-neutral synthetic fuels have “proven to be comparable to renewable electricity for space heating in cold climates.” “.
“For me, this speaks to the key flexibility that I think we need to make space heating decarbonization possible within this timeframe,” Quinnell said. work in this area. ”
Getting the right federal charging policy and infrastructure, as well as addressing supply chain challenges, is critical to meeting the goal of half of new car sales being electric vehicles by 2030, members of the Center for Automotive Research campaign group said.
NextEra, the world’s largest IOU by market value, wants its regulated subsidiary FPL to “really” cut all carbon emissions through solar power, batteries and green hydrogen, but on the demand side, that doesn’t help much.
Getting the right federal charging policy and infrastructure, as well as addressing supply chain challenges, is critical to meeting the goal of half of new car sales being electric vehicles by 2030, members of the Center for Automotive Research campaign group said.
NextEra, the world’s largest IOU by market value, wants its regulated subsidiary FPL to “really” cut all carbon emissions through solar power, batteries and green hydrogen, but on the demand side, that doesn’t help much.