With the unclear signals from politicians, it is difficult for homeowners as well as all other groups to judge whether waiting until next year to replace them might be financially worthwhile. The fact is, however, that sales of heat pumps have declined as a result of the lack of clarity. This can be explained mainly by the fact that many homeowners prefer to wait for clarity instead of looking for replacements now. Accordingly, we can only present arguments for implementation in 2023 or for waiting until next year.

What is the case for a rapid change?

Due to the high expectations of the subsidy rates for 2024, many households have decided to postpone their heating replacement. Manufacturers who have ramped up their production for 2023 accordingly have relatively large inventories and short delivery times for BAFA-subsidized heat pumps. One could even go so far as to say that delivery times have not been this good since 2020 and may not be similarly good any time soon. If the expected large quantities are requested in 2024, then waiting times of 6 months upwards will probably occur again.

To still find customers in 2023, expect very good offers from the manufacturers of high-quality heat pumps. Together with the still very good subsidy rates of up to 40% for air-to-water heat pumps with natural refrigerants, these discounts make ordering soon very attractive. Depending on the development of energy prices, you can start saving on heating costs even 1-2 heating seasons earlier. This can be well over a thousand euros.

With the expected higher subsidy rates at lower covered costs and a cap on the maximum subsidy amount, it is questionable whether you will actually receive more money from BAFA next year for replacing a heat pump. In exchange, the non-covered portion of the project could increase. Especially for slightly more expensive projects or more additional work, this could sink in more.